Major central banks once again take the stage as the global economy battles against a deep depression, while officials are now moving to ease some of lockdown restrictions.
Major central banks have already unleashed unprecedented amounts of monetary support. The Fed has already announced a batch of measures and shall probably stay on hold this week.
The ECB shall probably extend its debt purchases to include junk bonds. Some investors are worried this decision could widen rifts between EU members. The ECB is under more pressure to act. EU policymakers last week failed to reach an agreement on the details of an emergency fund.
The BOJ left unchanged its main policy targets of guiding short-term rates to -0.1%. The central bank of Japan removed limits on its government bond purchases and increased corporate debt buying.
Overall, investors hope for the reopening of the economy based on the potential for wider availability of testing for COVID-19 cases.
Until there is concrete progress in drug trials for treatments, further market gains may be limited. Any sentiment around a therapy is really moving markets.
Investors have already accounted for dismal earnings and a massive economic decline in the second quarter. However, they hope that massive fiscal support would dampen the economic blow from business closures to contain the coronavirus pandemic.
Ready or not, some countries are beginning to reopen even as the disease has infected more than 928,000 people and killed over 190,000 people globally.
In the UK, the Services PMI plunged in March, dropping to 12.3 points, down from 35.7 a month earlier.
On the inflation front, Eurozone CPI came in at 0.7%, confirming the initial readings.
In the U.S., jobless claims dropped to 4.4 million, down from 5.5 million a week earlier, totally accounting to 26 million.
START TRADINGLQDFXperts – Weekly Forex report
The FX markets look to central bank meetings. Currency traders are focused on a U.S. Fed meeting ending Wednesday and an ECB meeting on Thursday. In any case they remain wary because threats posed by the virus have not been eliminated completely.
EUR/USD posted slight losses for a second successive week. Experts expect economic numbers for March to be dismal, reflecting deteriorating conditions due to the Covid-19 outbreak. The dollar has risen in recent weeks due to a dollar funding crunch and safe-haven inflows. But some analysts say the greenback is likely to fall in the long term because the Fed has eased monetary policy more aggressively than other central banks.
The British pound had a rough week, as GBP/USD fell over 1%. The Covid-19 virus has hit the UK hard, causing over 20,000 deaths. The economy is expected to decline sharply, which will likely hurt the British pound.
The Japanese yen had an uneventful week, as the USD/JPY remained close to the 107.50 line. The U.S. dollar has emerged as the primary safe-haven asset in the current crisis, outshining the yen.
The AUD/USD drifted for a second straight week. The COVID-19 outbreak has dampened risk appetite. This means that minor currencies such as the Aussie will likely remain under pressure.
The USD/CAD posted modest gains last week, as the pair closed just shy of the 1.41 line. The outlook for the loonie remains negative, as economic numbers are reflecting the economic fallout due to Covid-19. Low oil prices are also weighing on the Canadian dollar.
The week ahead – Global economy VS deep depression
Analysts expect that key events such as U.S. and Eurozone GDP will point to sharp contractions. The Covid-19 virus spread from China hammered major economies.
- On Tuesday (27.04) investors are waiting for the BoJ Rate Decision. The bank is likely to maintain its current monetary policy.
- On Wednesday (28.04) investors await for the German Preliminary CPI, the U.S. Advance GDP, and the FOMC Rate Decision. Inflation remains very low in the Eurozone’s number one economy. CPI is expected to dip to 0.0% in the upcoming release.
- Thursday (29.04) is full of data! What should we expect?
TheUnemployment Claimswhich probably drop with an estimate of 3.5 million.
The French Flash GDP which are bracing for a sharp decline of 4.0% in Q1 GDP.
The Eurozone Flash GDP for which the forecast stands at -3.7%. A decline in this range could send the euro sharply lower.
The Eurozone Inflation, for which the forecast for April stands at 0.7%.
The ECB Rate Decision whereby the ECB will also publish fresh forecasts for growth and inflation and may downgrade some of the data points.
The downturn of the Canadian GDP is expected to continue in February, with a forecast of 0.0%.
- The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI is due on Friday (01.05). Analysts expect a sharp slowdown in the upcoming release, with an estimate of 36.7 points. The 50-level separates contraction from expansion.
Follow this week’s economic calendar.
PLEASE NOTE The information above is not investment advice.
Sources: Reuters, CNBC, FX street