Financial markets remain on edge over the spread of the novel coronavirus as severe COVID19 restrictions drag the global economy into a deep recession.
Some European countries plan to start easing their lockdowns with fatalities declining. The risk sentiment steadily improved last week on tentative signs that the pandemic was slowing in U.S. and European hot spots.
The coronavirus crisis continues to cause widespread panic and chaos in the financial markets. Many nations continue to grapple with the massive economic damage. This week growing concerns over the extent of the economic hit from the coronavirus pandemic weigh on sentiment.
Last week, the Federal Reserve rolled out a $2.3 trillion package in its latest move to keep the U.S. economy intact against the pandemic. The U.S. Fed’s massive new lending programme for small companies reduced safe-haven demand.
In the U.S. employment figures were gloomy, as COVID19 restrictions have paralyzed much of the U.S. economy. Unemployment claims hit a shocking level for a second straight week, amounting to 6.60 million.
The ECB minutes from the March meeting took note of the turmoil caused by the COVID19 outbreak.
START TRADINGLQDFXperts – Weekly Forex report
Investors braced for more indications of economic damage from the pandemic. There is plenty of volatility in the currency markets, but the dollar remains the currency of choice for jittery investors.
EUR/USD volatility waned last week, as the pair gained 1.2%. The dire financial situation could spark a debt crisis, which would likely dampen sentiment towards the common currency.
GBP/USD gained 1.5% last week, recovering the losses seen a week earlier. The British economy is struggling, and the outlook for the pound remains bearish. The GDP declined by 0.1% in February, after a reading of zero a month earlier.
Dollar/yen had its straight second quiet week since mid-February. The U.S. dollar has emerged as the primary safe-haven asset in the current crisis, as the yen has been forced to take a back seat. Concerns about an increase in coronavirus infections and the declaration of a state of emergency in Japan offset dollar selling.
AUD/USD continues to show significant volatility. The pair soared last week, with gains just shy of 6%. The RBA rate decision was a quiet event, as the bank held the cash rate at 0.25%.
The Canadian dollar rebounded last week, as USD/CAD fell by 1.7%. The outlook for the Canadian dollar is bearish, as oil prices remain low. The economic fallout from COVID-19 has paralyzed the Canadian economy, which is extremely dependent on the U.S. and global trade.
The week ahead – COVID19 restrictions drag global economy
The global economy has been ravaged by the CORVID-19 virus, and investors are braced for contraction in China’s GDP and U.S. retail sales.
- On Wednesday (15.04) investors await for U.S. Retail Sales Reports. The headline reading is expected to fall by 8.0%. Further, the Bank of Canada Rate Decision is expected whereby the BoC will probably maintain rates.
- On Thursday (16.04) focus turns to German Final CPI, Canadian ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Australian Employment Data and U.S. Unemployment Claims. Jobless claims have crossed above the 6-million level for two straight weeks. The forecast remains miserable, with an estimate of 5.0 million for the upcoming release.
- On Friday (17.04) all eyes are on Chinese GDP as well as the Eurozone Inflation. In the initial readings, the headline figure for March came in at 0.7%, while the core figure showed a gain of 1.0%. Analysts expect that the final readings will probably conform to the initial readings.
Follow this week’s economic calendar.
PLEASE NOTE The information above is not investment advice.
Sources: Reuters, CNBC, FX street