PMI survey data published in the coming week will provide timely insights into macroeconomic trends worldwide at the end of the third quarter.
The week commenced with a flood of manufacturing PMIs for the world’s major economies.
Markets will evaluate the potential for easing global factory price pressures following a recent moderation of supply chain pressures.
However, the softening of demand, ongoing COVID-19 containment measures in mainland China, uncertainty regarding Russia and energy supply issues in Europe all remain major concerns for the economic outlook.
Later in the week come the service sector PMIs, where the impact of the cost-of-living crisis on consumer spending will be a key development to watch.
Investors will also watch Friday’s US nonfarm payroll report for guidance on the Fed’s policy stance. Payroll growth remained robust in August, and the jobless rate rose to 3.7% from 3.5% registered in August. Markets expect nonfarm payroll growth to slow to 250k in September, while the unemployment rate will likely hold at 3.7%. In the same spirit, average hourly earnings growth will keep at 0.3%.
From a policy-setting perspective, a scheduled meeting at the RBA is the main event, while markets will closely monitor potential interventions by the Bank of England.
Dense week of PMI survey data
The US week kicked off with PMI and ISM surveys and ends with the employment report.
Flash PMI data showed a weak September, rounding off the worst quarter since 2009. ISM non-manufacturing surveys have meanwhile remained buoyant.
Moreover, slower growth is expected for non-farm payrolls, with a 250k gain currently the consensus against a 315k August rise.
Also, watch out for US factory orders, job openings, consumer credit data, and Canada’s labour market statistics.
Finally, final manufacturing and services PMIs will be updated for the Eurozone and UK, alongside detailed PMI sector indices, to provide additional insights into economic trends amid recession risks across the region.
Key diary events
Tuesday 4 October
Australia RBA policy decision
Eurozone PPI (Aug)
US factory orders, JOLTS (Aug)
Russia GDP (Aug)
Wednesday 5 October
Worldwide services & composite PMI surveys (Sep)
ISM US non-manufacturing survey (Sep)
New Zealand RBNZ policy decision
ECB non-monetary policy meeting
US trade balance (Aug), ADP employment (Sep)
Canada trade balance, building permits (Aug)
Thursday 6 October
Detailed global PMI sector data (Sep)
Australia trade balance (Aug)
UK & eurozone construction PMIs (Sep)
Eurozone retail sales (Aug)
US jobless claims
Friday 7 October
Canada labour market statistics (Sep)
US employment report (Sep)
US consumer credit, wholesale inventories (Aug)
For more economic events, watch our Economic Calendar.
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